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Customer Behaviour

The Kantar Worldpanel market share figures for the 12 weeks to 2 February show that growth in the GB grocery market has continued to increase, despite increasingly entrenched negative inflation.  Market growth in the latest period rose to 1.1%, a notable acceleration on 0.6% seen in January, while inflation fell to -1.2%, the lowest level seen in the last nine years.
 

 

12 weeks to 02 February 2014 (% share)

12 weeks to 01 February 2015 (% share)

Sales growth (Y-o-Y %)

Tesco

29.2

29.0

0.3

Asda

17.3

16.9

-1.7

Sainsbury's

17.1

16.7

-1.0

Morrisons

11.3

11.1

-0.4

The Co-operative

6.1

5.9

-2.7

Waitrose

4.9

5.2

7.2

Aldi

4.1

4.9

21.2

Lidl

3.1

3.5

14.2

Iceland

2.3

2.2

-0.5

Other multiples

2.7

2.7

1.4

Total symbols & independents

1.9

1.9

-2.4

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

Tesco turns positive

Compared to the January data, when Tesco lagged the market by 1.8 percentage points, the market leader has significantly narrowed that gap to 0.8 percentage points in this latest rolling 12 week period, boosting its sales into positive territory (+0.3%) for the first time in 12 months.  But, despite this notable step up, its market share has continued to fall, dropping back to 29%.

Asda and Sainsbury's drop further behind the market

Though overall market growth picked up, sales at Asda and Sainsbury's slowed further over this latest 12 weeks, with Asda's decline of 1.7%, in particular, leaving it 2.8 percentage points behind the sector average.  Meanwhile, though Morrisons remains in negative territory, the rate of its sales fall slowed to 0.4% (from -1.6% previously), indicating an improvement in relative performance effectively ahead of the wider market.

Discounters slowing progressively

Growth for both Aldi (+21.2%) and Lidl (+14.2%) is still stellar compared with the rest of the market, but the trends for both have moderated over recent months, indicating perhaps both a strengthening of competition (driven by price-cutting amongst the leading four) and the tougher annual comparatives they face from their own performances.

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